Nobody knows anything!
Marc Randolph borrowed the phrase from the writer William Goldman’s memoir Adventures in the Screen Trade.
“For every good idea, there are a thousand bad ideas it is indistinguishable from.”
You have to go out, see what works, discard the failures and build on the successes. You won’t know if it’s a hit until after you bring it to market. Picasso produced 20,000 pieces of art, Einstein wrote more than 240 papers, Dylan recorded 50 albums, Bach wrote a cantata every week, Thomas Edison filed 1039 patents, VCs fund hundreds of businesses (hell, even Richard Branson funded more than 250 companies). Those who have created the most are also the ones who have the most significant innovative impact.