The truth about „visionaries“ is that they know as little about the future as we do. But they have the confidence to bet on one. When luck is on their side, they’re successful and they are praised for their foresight (sic!). But here’s your daily reminder: The confidence to bet on one single horse in a race with multiple thousands contestants can come from anywhere. You don’t have to be smart or something. But a safety net (aka loss of money or reputation doesn’t matter) def helps.